Union Budget 2025-26: 5 Key Expectations

President Donald Trump has agreed to delay imposing a 25% tariff on Mexican imports for one month after Mexico committed to deploying 10,000 National Guard troops to its northern border to combat drug trafficking and illegal immigration. This decision follows discussions with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. However, the U.S. will proceed with a 25% tariff on Canadian imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will enhance border security and address fentanyl trafficking in response to the tariffs.

President Donald Trump's recent announcement of imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on Chinese goods, has led to a significant decline in cryptocurrency values. Bitcoin's price fell from approximately $105,000 to $92,000, before recovering to over $100,000 after Trump paused the tariffs for Mexico and Canada. Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and Dogecoin, also experienced substantial drops. Financial markets worldwide reacted negatively to the tariff threats, with U.S.

WeWork India, managed by Embassy Group, has filed for an initial public offering (IPO) in Mumbai. The IPO will involve selling 33 million shares from Embassy Group and 10.3 million shares from 1 Ariel Way Tenant, with no new shares being issued. Consequently, WeWork India will not receive any proceeds from this sale. The company manages a total leaseable area of approximately 6.48 million square feet. This move comes after WeWork's U.S. parent company filed for bankruptcy in November 2023 due to significant losses from high lease costs and reduced demand during the pandemic.

On February 3, 2025, the Indian stock market experienced a decline, influenced by global trade concerns following the U.S. President's decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. The BSE Sensex fell by 319.22 points (0.41%) to close at 77,186.74, while the NSE Nifty50 dropped 121.10 points (0.52%) to end at 23,361.05. Sectors such as Oil & Gas, Metals, and FMCG were among the hardest hit. Notably, Larsen & Toubro's shares decreased by 4.64% to ₹3,287.25, and NTPC Ltd. saw a decline of 2.05% to ₹311.15.

The 2025-26 Budget introduces tax relief measures that are anticipated to increase bank deposits by ₹42,000 to ₹45,000 crore, according to M. Nagaraju, Secretary of the Department of Financial Services. Key initiatives include raising the income tax exemption limit to ₹12 lakh and increasing the Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) threshold on fixed deposit interest for senior citizens from ₹50,000 to ₹1 lakh, effective from FY26. For non-senior citizens, the TDS threshold will rise from ₹40,000 to ₹50,000 per financial year. These changes are expected to enhance banking sector liquidity by encouraging more individuals, especially senior citizens, to deposit

The Kia Syros base variant, priced at Rs 9 lakh, is Rs 1 lakh costlier than the Kia Sonet HTE (Rs 8 lakh), but it offers more features and a powerful 1-litre turbo-petrol engine (120 PS, 172 Nm) with a 6-speed manual. In comparison, the Sonet comes with a 1.2-litre naturally aspirated petrol engine (83 PS, 115 Nm) and a 5-speed manual. The Syros is wider, taller, and has 80 litres more boot space. It also features a 12.3-inch touchscreen, rear sunshades, and front parking sensors, making it worth the premium.

The Indian rupee dropped to a record low of 87.29 per dollar on February 3, 2025, following a sharp rise in the US dollar index to 109.84. This fall came after US President Donald Trump imposed heavy tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, sparking fears of a global trade war. Foreign investors pulled out $11 billion from Indian markets, and the widening trade deficit of $188 billion further pressured the rupee. While costlier imports like crude oil could fuel inflation, Indian exports, IT, and remittances may benefit from the weaker currency. The RBI faces a tough choice balancing inflation, growth, and currency stability, with a potential rate cut expected soon.

The 2025 Budget has made the electric vehicle (EV) industry in India very happy. The government increased funding for EV schemes by 20%, raising it from ₹4,434.92 crore to ₹5,322 crore. The PM E-DRIVE Scheme also saw a 114% hike to ₹4,000 crore for FY26. Key materials like cobalt powder, lithium-ion battery scrap, lead, and zinc are now free from Basic Customs Duty (BCD), reducing costs for EV makers. Plus, 35 new items for EV battery production are duty-free, boosting local manufacturing and making EVs cheaper for consumers.

India's manufacturing sector grew at its fastest rate in six months, with the PMI rising to 57.7 in January from 56.4 in December. This growth was powered by strong domestic demand and record export orders, marking the steepest increase in nearly 14 years. Job creation surged, with the employment index hitting its highest level since it started. Input costs eased for the second month, but firms still raised prices due to high demand. Optimism is high, with 32% of manufacturers expecting more growth in the coming months.

Indian stock markets closed lower on February 3, following global sell-offs after US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. The NSE Nifty 50 fell 0.52% to 23,361.05, and the BSE Sensex dropped 0.4% to 77,192.86. US futures also sank, with Dow Jones falling 546 points (1.22%), S&P 500 losing 1.4%, and Nasdaq-100 down 1.7%. Asian markets were hit hard, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 2.5%, South Korea’s Kospi falling 2.9%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropping 1.4%. Concerns grew as the rupee weakened, and investors worried about continued foreign sell-offs.

Today, 104 companies are scheduled to release their third-quarter earnings. Key firms to watch include Power Grid Corporation, Divi's Laboratories, General Insurance Corporation, and Tata Chemicals. Analysts predict that Power Grid will show a slight profit increase of 0.6% year-over-year, with a nearly 1% decline in revenue. In contrast, Divi's Laboratories is expected to report a significant net profit rise of 56% and a 29% growth in revenue. Other companies reporting today include Gland Pharma, Aditya Birla Capital, KPR Mill, KEC International, Premier Energies, Sky Gold, Stove Kraft, and Welspun Enterprises.

In response to President Donald Trump's recent imposition of 25% tariffs on Canadian imports, former Canadian finance minister Chrystia Freeland has proposed a 100% tariff on Tesla vehicles and U.S. alcoholic beverages.

This move aims to pressure Trump's allies, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Freeland emphasized the need for targeted measures to protect Canada's interests. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has also indicated that Canada is prepared to implement a "forceful but reasonable" response to the U.S. tariffs.

India is rethinking its strict stance on cryptocurrencies due to increasing global acceptance. Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth emphasized that digital assets "don't believe in borders," suggesting India aims to stay current with international trends.

This shift comes as the government imposes a 30% tax on digital asset gains and considers penalties up to 70% on undisclosed crypto earnings. Despite these measures, India is exploring a central bank digital currency (CBDC) to modernize its financial system. The evolving global landscape is prompting India to reassess its crypto regulations to balance innovation with oversight.

India’s stock market is set for an action-packed week with five IPOs and two major listings. Chamunda Electricals, Ken Enterprises, Amwill Healthcare, Readymix Construction Machinery, and Eleganz Interiors are launching their IPOs, aiming to raise crores.

Dr. Agarwal’s Health Care and Malpani Pipes will be listed on February 5. These developments bring exciting investment opportunities across various sectors.

The budget policy measures are poised to significantly benefit the auto and auto components, fertilizers, textiles, and transport sectors. These industries are expected to experience substantial growth due to targeted support and strategic initiatives. The auto sector, in particular, may see advancements through incentives for electric vehicle production and infrastructure development. Fertilizer and textile industries could gain from subsidies and export promotions, respectively. The transport sector stands to improve with investments in infrastructure and streamlined regulations. These developments aim to bolster economic growth and enhance sectoral performance.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to reduce interest rates for the first time in nearly five years, aiming to boost the slowing economy. Economists anticipate a 25 basis point cut in the repo rate, bringing it down to 6.25%. This decision follows a decline in inflation, which eased to 5.22% in December 2024. The move comes as the new RBI Governor, Sanjay Malhotra, takes charge, signaling a shift towards supporting economic growth. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet on February 7 to finalize this decision.

US President Donald Trump has kicked off his promise of protectionist trade policies. 25 per cent tariff on Canada and Mexico , and 10 per cent on China effective from Tuesday.

India has already begun lowering tariffs to favour US exports in a bid to avoid Trump ’s tariffs. Duties on items primarily exported by the US , such as motorcycles with an engine capacity below 1, 600cc , were slashed in the Union Budget 2025-26 presented on Saturday.

The government has pegged non-tax revenue from the telecom sector 33% lower at ₹82,443 crore for FY26, down from ₹1.23 lakh crore in FY25, as per Budget documents. Telecom Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia cited reduced spectrum auction demand and steady AGR dues as key reasons. Massive 5G spectrum auctions in recent years reduced the need for additional auctions. BSNL’s allocation also dropped by 53% to ₹34,257 crore in FY26 from ₹72,528 crore in FY25, reflecting decreased spectrum requirements. Future auctions depend on industry demand, with 400 MHz potentially needed till 2030.