Historian Allan Lichtman’s predictor model, renowned for its accuracy since the 1980s, has forecasted a winner for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
This model, based on "Keys to the White House," considers key factors such as economy, incumbency, and social unrest, predicting outcomes with 21 correct calls out of the last 24 elections. Lichtman’s model is followed closely by political analysts and the public alike, as it uses historical patterns to estimate voter mood rather than poll data